Planning Factor Analysis For Outside-the-Fence Population Growth

Assessment of 20,000 outside-the-fence Planning Factor:

-The Education sub-committee assessed various scenarios of a 20,000 population influx and selected Scenario 1 as a base-line.  Our sub-committee believes the local population percentages best reflect the types of family sizes anticipated to influx to Guam.

-Given the calculated projected influx of school-aged children and the new school ceiling requirements for Guam, we anticipate a need for a total of 6 to 9 additional new schools:  4-5 Elementary, 1-2 Middle, and 1-2 High.

-Given estimated cost factors, we project the following costs for construction and land for each school: Elementary = $9.14 - $10.14 mil; Middle  = $19.84 – $20.84 mil; High = $33.25 - $34.25 mil.

-Estimates for new school construction and land costs mentioned above do not account for possible costs saving if clustered models are used (i.e. land space, gyms, cafeterias, etc).

-Given the projected number of 6-9 new schools, there will be a need for 164-256 additional teachers.  Estimated administrators, staff, and other support personnel are pending.

-The assessment on the number of new schools is a broad and macro view and does not take into account information identified below in the “Pending Information for More Detailed Assessment” section.  Once we obtain this information, we will be able to provide a more detailed assessment of these numbers. 

-For planning purposes, we believe this assessment will provide insight to other subcommittees on potential/additional needs/requirements.

Planning Factor Assumptions: 

-Per Bureau of Statistics and Planning (BSP), the planning factor for “outside-the-fence” population influx will be 20,000 and includes adults and family members.

-This number is a civilian population influx from the Federated States of Micronesia (FSM), other countries in the western pacific, and CONUS. 

-This does not include military and their family members, DoD civilians and their family members, or H-2 construction workers.

-Estimated costs to construct each new school:  Elementary = $8-9 million; Middle = $17-18 million; High = $29-30 million.

-Estimated land cost using a $35/sm rate in the northwest part of the island for each school:  Elementary – approximately 8 acres = $1.14 million; Middle – approximately 20 acres = $2.84 million;  High – approximately 30 acres = $4.25 million. 

-New GPSS school enrollment ceilings per Public Law 24-73; Public Law 28-009; and 17 Guam Code Annotated (GCA) Education, Chapter 7, Section 7113 are:  Elementary = 550;  Middle  = 700;  High  = 1,200. 

-The non-military population growth may possibly reside within 5-10 miles from where the military housing will be located which will impact where these schools may be constructed.

-The Guam Federation of Teachers (GFT) Board Union Contract average Teacher to Student Ratios (TSR) used reflect the following needs for teachers:

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